G7, HOW TO READ THE OUTCOME OF THE SUMMIT
The 50th summit of the Group of Seven (G7) has closed with weak and timid signals, amid support for Ukraine, negligible advances on climate and the environment, acknowledging the weight of IA on security and the economy.
The outcome of the forum, held in Puglia's 5* Borgo Egnazia resort, is summarized both in the lines of the Final Communiqué and in the reactions of commentators and the press. For many analysts, the G7 summits remain an anachronism. In 1980, the Big Seven made up 51 percent of the world's gross domestic product while developing countries in Asia accounted for only 8.8 percent. In 2024, the G-7 countries will produce just 31 percent of the world's GDP, while the Asian countries themselves will produce 32.9 percent.
Today, the G20 is the real meeting of the major economies and the only one that can define unified strategies, which is essential for finding common ground.
Climate, slows down ambition
On climate, the G7 outcome document aligns with the COP28 document approved last December in Dubai. "There is determination to address the triple global crisis of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss," it reads, welcoming with deep concern the results of the first Global Stocktake on the achievement of the Paris goals.
It reaffirms the commitment to move away from "fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating actions in this critical decade, to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, in line with the best available science," through ambitious new NDCs and "intensive efforts to reduce fossil fuel demand and use." Commitments under the U.N. climate change framework to "triple global renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030" are reaffirmed, confirming plans to install 1,500 GW of battery storage globally and decarbonize the electricity sector by 2035. Also "eliminating inefficient public subsidies to fossil fuels by 2025," as also repeatedly announced by the G20 (the first time was in 2009 with Obama), but without ever seeing tangible consequences. Stop coal (without Carbon Capture&Storage) by the middle of the next decade or within a time frame consistent with maintaining a 1.5°C limit on temperature rise."
The G7 announced that methane emissions from fossil fuel-related operations would be reduced by at least 75 percent globally by 2030 (but excluding those from the agribusiness sector), but use of methane will not be abandoned any time soon. Given the exceptional circumstances that have made it essential to break free from energy dependence on Russia, Italy wanted at all costs to reiterate "the important role that an increase in LNG supplies can play," largely from Norway, the U.S. and the Middle East (Saudi Emir Mohammed Bin Salman and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan were also present). Prime Minister Meloni said that "we have to work with a pragmatic approach, always keeping in mind the needs of our production system. We cannot fall into the paradox that in order to favor the environment we end up favoring nations that do not have so much trouble harming the environment."
Reactions on climate and environment
Luca Bergamaschi, director and co-founder of ECCO, the Italian climate think tank comments that "the G7 leaders reaffirmed the leading role of COP28 and the need for a gradual exit from fossil fuels, starting with reducing their demand. What is missing are precise timelines and policies to accompany the orderly exit from fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050."
"The group, responsible for nearly 30 percent of fossil fuel production, has left the door open to continued public investment in gas," said Nicola Flamigni, of the pressure group GSCC.
Other underlined the lack of decisions on finance for cooperation and development and climate, a central theme of COP29 in Baku in November. The final communiqué reiterates a number of critical points in the financial gap: rising debt burdens, which "limit the ability of low- and middle-income countries to invest in their future and achieve the SDGs"; the need for innovative instruments within Multilateral Development Banks, such as hybrid capital and portfolio guarantees; and more generally "the importance of continuing to provide significant concessional support to low-income countries." But no clear financial targets in any area we announced, neither in cooperation, nor for strengthening multilateral banks, nor a proposal for the new 2030 climate finance target, the well-known NCQG.
Africa
The African continent had a major role in the G7 Agenda. "With the broader Mediterranean region, Africa will shape the future of the world," the statement read. Also in support of the Mattei plan (an Italian strategy for agricultural and energy collaboration in Africa), the Energy for Growth in Africa initiative was launched involving seven African countries, with the goal of "playing a central role in supporting Africa's ambitions and efforts to develop adequate clean energy infrastructure and supply chains." But, commentators note, no announcements or financial pledge of any kind were made.
Also aligned with the much-hyped Mattei Plan, which will focus heavily on African food systems, the G7 Puglia Food Systems Initiative (AFSI) was launched, with the goal of "overcoming structural barriers to food security and nutrition" and to "improve the fiscal space for food security," by reducing borrowing costs for poorer nations through mechanisms such as debt swaps.
This is the G7's fourth food security initiative aimed at addressing one of the structural causes of migration from the continent. But for African civil society, it is an initiative destined for the umpteenth time to remain on paper due to lack of resources.
A Geopolitical G7
Geopolitically, the most important success is the agreement on the $50 billion loan to Ukraine secured by sizing Russian assets, and, on the sidelines but no less important, the two-way pact between Washington DC and Kiev for military and defensive assistance and cooperation. The message for Moscow is clear: the West will stand by Ukraine and Russia must literally pay for its aggression.
Another topic was the necessity of protectionism, especially against China, following the European Union's announcement to raise tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China by up to 38 percent. The communiqué states that although the G7 countries are "not seeking to harm China or hinder its economic development," they express their "concerns about China's persistent industrial orientation and its non-market policies and practices that are leading to global spillovers, market distortions and harmful overcapacity in a growing range of sectors, undermining our workers, our industries and our economic resilience and security."
But if the Italian G7 was a meeting in continuity with the past, Lula, who is preparing to receive the Greats of the Earth at the G20 in November in Rio de Janeiro, is working to deliver a summit that promises to be historic for its'' ambitious social, environmental and economic agenda. Will it succeed in confirming the Group of 20 as the true international forum of the 21st century?
Article by Emanuele Bompan
*Photo credit: Ludovic MARIN - AFP